People in the US are referring to this summer as the "staycation" since a mix of recession, high gas prices and a weak dollar means that most people are staying at home (one evidence is the bumper summer box office which seems to break even last year's stellar record).
Can't believe these girls will be a year old soon. They're now crawling all over the place, cruising around our family room, and Piper can say "HI" while Sydney can say "BYE BYE". Goes pretty fast...
Okay...where to begin?
Vacation in Sweden has started and although I have some overseas assignments in the coming months, life has wound down. What better way to spend it than to catch up on some reading, TED talks and fellow futurologists (in between feeding session and walks with the twins, that is)?
This morning, the good people of Welledge, a chiropractic clinic in Stockholm, invited me to a session with "futurist" John L. Pedersen of the Arlington Institute. We were about fifteen people in the room who was going to listen to Mr Pedersen's view of the future. What I heard astonished me...for all the wrong reasons.
Before I begin to recap Pedersen's rant, let me point out that the word "Institute" is in no way a proprietary title. Anyone who wants (or needs) to give their company a feeling of weight and academic credibility can tag on the I-word in their company name. Compare Pattern Recognition AB with The Pattern Recognition Institute. Which one would you trust for a research report? Secondly, I intentionally stay away from the title “futurist” although some journalists insist on using it to describe what I do. The futurists were semi-fascist Italians and Russians in the early 20th century who frowned on the past and embraced (often violent) change. Enough said. On to Pedersen.
John Pedersen began by outlining the biggest challenges in the world today. It was basically the stuff that’s filled the news in the past few years – climate change, financial market meltdown, the end of oil and China turning belligerent (although Pedersen’s rather amusing reasons for China’s future violence was a cadre of Chinese bachelors unable to find a wife in China because of the one-child-per-family policy). He kept on saying things like “we are entering an area we’ve never seen before” or “unimaginable change” for dramatic effect, I guess. His conclusion was that “the entire system that we’re basing the world on right now” will collapse. Finance, oil, etc are all going out the window because “they did not work”. This rather drastic conclusion was followed by a prediction that we’re entering a new age “where even mankind might evolve into a new being”.
When I challenged him on some of the assumptions that he built his argument on (peak oil, the credit crunch, and so on), he smirked and gave me one of those “if you had to ask you just wouldn’t understand”-answers.
So what lies ahead in this “new age”. Well, said Pedersen, “competition is going to disappear because it’s based on an idea of separateness”. The future is about…are you ready…collaboration! Disregarding the fact that the word competition comes from Latin’s com petare – to strive together and that competition tends to be beneficial for consumers and sports fans alike, the idea of collaboration can hardly qualify as any kind of groundbreaking prediction. Most of the 20th century was about companies, regions and nations getting closer to each other and collaborating (and competing at the same time in some instances). Then came Pedersen’s denoument. Forget all talk of Black Swans and unpredictable events; The Arlington Institute has the answer. It’s called a Dream Machine (or a “Wether Report” as in “Whether or Not?”…it was unclear what the actual name was). The technology, which Pedersen is “refusing to sell to the US government although they want it” is based on the assumption (and make that assumption as in vague guess) that people tend to “dream more vivid dreams prior to big tragedies like The Tsunami and 9-11”. The idea then is to hook all these people up to a machine so they can talk about their dreams and intuitions “before the events happen”. A prediction machine…
Whoa…
Ehhh….
When I pointed out (quite generously if I may say so myself) that the US government was working on something similar back in 2002 minus the metaphysical aspect, he went even further by talking abut the CIA’s remote viewing project and about psychic’s predicting the future. His friend has in fact already predicted the future and you’ll be happy to know that “after 2012 everything looks different…something has changed”.
And so on.
And so forth.
The more worrying aspect of this session was the amount of nodding and “oh yes” that went on amongst the participants.
Someone asked “who owns the Federal Reserve” and Pedersen gave the common near anti-Semitic answer that “ultimately it’s owned by a few families…The Rothschild’s and others”.
I didn’t know whether to laugh (I did, believe me) or sigh (I did that too).
What do people like John L Pedersen do to our profession (trendspotters and futurologists alike), I wonder. What if someone would mistake what I do with what he does?
Doomsaying, quasi-scientific conspiracy theorists may be amusing to listen to in small doses but when they start masquerading as “professors”, “futurists” and “consultants”, it may actually do some harm.
What about the people who felt “enlightened” by Pedersen?
Still, I guess it’s people like him that make me do what I do. I can’t help to quote the central mission of The Economist:
“Founded in 1848 to take part in a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress”
I don't know whether I should acknowledge (i.e. admit) or completely ignore my dismal blogging record this past few months. To all readers - I'm sorry. I have only excuses and very few reasons besides the balancing act of a career, a marriage and two twin boys.
A couple years ago, my team at Microsoft was thrilled to be asked by Disney to help out in designing/constructing the "Innoventions Dream Home" at Disneyland, and after quite a bit of work from many at MS, the attraction just opened this past Monday.
I got the opportunity to come down and do a bunch of press interviews and represent Microsoft as a speaker at the opening ceremony... so I suppose my dream of being a cast member at Disney has kinda now come true. Kristina and Alexander came with -- and Alexander may have done better than me with his the press coverage... he was so photogenic visiting the exhibit that both CNET video and the AP picked up his image for use in their press stories! Check them out!
- Our family photos from the Innoventions (and Toy Story Mania) Grand Opening... big milestones for Alexander: he riding Space Mountain and Thunder Mountain!
- Alexander's photo runs with AP story (Yahoo and other places)
- Alexander appears in CNET video story about the event
Sure was fun. Hope we open a Dream Home in Orlando, too!
The whole family spent 3 weeks in Florida visiting Joe's family during the month of May and part of June. Aah, it was a great time and so nice to see everyone as much as we did. We posted some pictures on Flickr, check them out. here's one of my favorites:
3 days after we got back, the following headline ran in the Seattle Times:
Yes, that's really real. Sigh.
In Brussels yesterday evening, I had the great pleasure of meeting entrepreneur and leadership coach Eric Vogt. Having founded such firms as Communispace, Eric has now turned his attention to his greatest interest, wine. His company, Eprovenance, uses RFID technology to ensure a high quality level of wine bottles. The RFID sticker transmits bottle temperature constantly. Eprovenance reminds me of the introductory chapter of the book I'm currently
How fortunate... on June 1, in sunny florida, Alexander decided it was time to get behind the boat, with a little help from Daddy. His first attempt was a total success (not so in round 2!).
Enjoy!
CLICK HERE to watch the video.
I just spent the week in London, doing workshops and speaking at the London Business Forum. I may just start with the most remarkable bit first: meeting Richard Branson. Before I get back to that, here are some reflections of trends in the UK.
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